OFFICIAL MARKET DATA & PRICE INDICATORS
DATE | CASH (USD/t) | CASH (EUR/t) | CASH (GBP/t) | WEEKLY AVERAGE (USD/t) | WEEKLY CHANGE % | YEARLY CHANGE % | LME STOCKS (Tonnes) | DEL NOTIZ (€/100Kg) | DEL NOTIZ HIGH |
3.01.2023 | 8.390,00 | 7.963,17 | 7.017,40 | 8.345,38 | -0,25% | -4,63% | 88550 | 8200,98 | 8232,38 |
4.01.2023 | 8.209,00 | 7.738,50 | 6.812,45 | 8.345,38 | -2,40% | -6,68% | 88575 | 7976,36 | 8007,56 |
5.01.2023 | 8.420,00 | 7.944,15 | 7.015,50 | 8.345,38 | 0,11% | -4,29% | 87775 | 8178,55 | 8209,76 |
6.01.2023 | 8.362,50 | 7.968,08 | 7.051,01 | 8.345,38 | -0,58% | -4,94% | 86400 | 8209,97 | 8241,51 |
9.01.2023 | 8.722,00 | 8.159,79 | 7.185,11 | 8.930,80 | 4,51% | -0,85% | 85150 | 8397,84 | 8428,81 |
10.01.2023 | 8.766,50 | 8.178,47 | 7.228,31 | 8.930,80 | 5,05% | -0,35% | 84775 | 8415,12 | 8445,99 |
11.01.2023 | 8.987,00 | 8.367,00 | 7.418,69 | 8.930,80 | 7,69% | 2,16% | 84800 | 8604,51 | 8635,32 |
12.01.2023 | 9.071,50 | 8.428,41 | 7.476,72 | 8.930,80 | 8,70% | 3,12% | 84550 | 8664,80 | 8695,55 |
13.01.2023 | 9.107,00 | 8.423,05 | 7.478,85 | 8.930,80 | 9,13% | 3,52% | 83850 | 8658,35 | 8688,96 |
16.01.2023 | 9.145,50 | 8.456,31 | 7.504,31 | 9.232,00 | 2,40% | 3,96% | 83600 | 8689,22 | 8719,81 |
17.01.2023 | 9.114,00 | 8.398,45 | 7.435,75 | 9.232,00 | 2,05% | 3,60% | 83325 | 8631,22 | 8661,71 |
18.01.2023 | 9.436,00 | 8.717,66 | 7.628,75 | 9.232,00 | 5,66% | 7,26% | 81925 | 8951,88 | 8982,45 |
19.01.2023 | 9.190,00 | 8.502,17 | 7.451,55 | 9.232,00 | 2,90% | 4,47% | 81600 | 8738,58 | 8769,20 |
20.01.2023 | 9.232,00 | 8.533,92 | 7.472,88 | 9.232,00 | 3,37% | 4,94% | 80025 | 8769,41 | 8800,00 |
23.01.2023 | 9.340,50 | 8.592,13 | 7.552,76 | 9.308,10 | 1,18% | 6,18% | 78300 | 8826,62 | 8857,06 |
24.01.2023 | 9.308,00 | 8.570,90 | 7.574,25 | 9.308,10 | 0,82% | 5,81% | 78150 | 8803,14 | 8833,60 |
25.01.2023 | 9.258,00 | 8.513,10 | 7.508,52 | 9.308,10 | 0,28% | 5,24% | 77100 | 8748,10 | 8778,53 |
26.01.2023 | 9.288,50 | 8.527,04 | 7.493,14 | 9.308,10 | 0,61% | 5,59% | 75900 | 8758,46 | 8788,83 |
27.01.2023 | 9.345,50 | 8.599,89 | 7.557,42 | 9.308,10 | 1,23% | 6,23% | 73975 | 8832,05 | 8862,49 |
30.01.2023 | 9.227,00 | 8.462,03 | 7.446,53 | 9.130,20 | -0,87% | 4,89% | 76100 | 8694,65 | 8725,00 |
31.01.2023 | 9.075,00 | 8.381,82 | 7.376,85 | 9.130,20 | -2,50% | 3,16% | 75225 | 8615,88 | 8646,45 |
MONTHLY | 8999,79 | 8353,62 | 7366,04 |
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|
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| 8588,84 | 8619,57 |
MARKET COMMENTARY
Global markets started the new year with a very busy economic data calendar, The markets were cautious by the announcements of the minutes of the Fed's meeting in December, pointing to a slowdown in the rate of increase in interest rates and China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December.
3M LME copper was cautious at the beginning of the first week ahead of the economic data to be released. On January 4, it fell to $8188, the lowest level since November 30, as rising coronavirus cases in China and weakening global industrial activity fueled concerns over demand. However, 3M LME copper, which rose with expectations that China's efforts to support its economy will increase metal demand, rose to $8624 despite the stronger dollar and closed the week at $8610 with a premium of 2.82%. The dropping of China's stringent "zero-COVID" measures sparked some hopes for better economic activities in the world's biggest metals consuming market.
Following the hawkish annoucement by Fed officials in the second week of January, US consumer prices dropped 0.1% in December, for the first time in more than two and a half years, despite expectations that there would be no change from the previous month. In China, announced consumer prices rose from 1.6% to 1.8%, in line with expectations.
3M LME copper closed the second week of January at $9240 with a premium of 7.32% after testing $9257, the highest level since June 16, with the support of the weakening dollar after the US data, as well as the hopes that China's reopening its borders will increase copper demand.
3M LME copper started the third week with losses, but it rose as high as $9550.50 on 18 January, the highest since June 10, supported by low inventories and hopes that demand in China will pick up later in the year. Although copper prices remained in a narrow band at the end of the week due to global recession concerns and the slowdown in physical metal demand ahead of the long holiday in China, they closed the week at $9342 with a premium of 1.10% on the back of the weak dollar and expectations of higher demand from the largest consumer, China.
In the 4th week of 2023, most Asian markets did not trade due to the Lunar New Year holiday, while the US GDP grew above the expectations of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, increasing 2.9% year-on-year compared to the same period of the previous year, and Tokyo consumer prices in Japan in January were the same as last year. With an increase of 4.3% compared to the previous period, the fastest increase in 42 years was recorded on an annual basis.
3M LME copper, which had a low trading volume during the week due to the Chinese holiday, was in the range of $9175-$9439 in the 4th week. 3M LME copper finished the week at $9270, down 0.77% after a week-long holiday in China slowed the rally triggered by demand expectations from the world's largest consumer. Although 3M LME copper traded in the range of $8188-9550 in January, it closed the first month of 2023 at $9279.
MONTHLY REVIEW & INDUSTRY NEWS
The world's refined copper market saw a 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.
World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes.
For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said.
China's copper imports in December registered a yearly decline in the wake of cooling demand as factory activity shrank at a sharper pace amid surging COVID-19 infections.
China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 514,049 tonnes in December, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday.
China's purchases, which included anode, refined, alloy and semi-finished copper products, were down 12.7% from imports of 589,165 tonnes in December 2021, a 14-month high.
Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that Japan's total copper production gain 7.5% in December to 52,835 tonnes.
The government body Cochilco announced that Chile's total copper production fell 6.9% in November to 449,000 tonnes.
Chile's state-run Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, produced 172,000 fewer tonnes of copper in 2022, Chairman Maximo Pacheco said on Tuesday, marking a roughly 10% drop from output in 2021.
Codelco produced an estimated 1.446 million tonnes of copper in 2022, compared to 1.618 million tonnes in 2021.
Production from state owned giant Codelco slipped 11.7% in November to 135,800 tonnes on a yearly basis.
Cochilco said, while output from BHP controlled Escondida fell 0.62% to 79,800 tonnes in November.
Collahuasi, a joint venture of Anglo American and Glencore, produced 46,700 tonnes, a 7.9% drop in November.
Fitch Solutions revised up its copper price forecast to $8,500 a tonne in 2023 from $8,400, as demand edges higher alongside a comparatively weaker supply outlook.
Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to rise to $10,000 /mt in 2023.
Citi sees copper’s rally contınuıng in very near term, upgrades its 0-3 month copper price to $10,000/t from $7,800/t.
LME stock and price chart are provided below for your information:
DISCLAIMER: This material has been prepared by ER-BAKIR for information purposes only and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The material is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, ER-BAKIR makes no guarantee of its accuracy and completeness of factual or analytical data and is not responsible for errors of transmission or reception, nor shall ER-BAKIR be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information.
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